Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Promiscuity Data: Guest Post.

A while after putting up my first post of subject of promiscuity and divorce risk, I was contacted by an individual who wished to analyse the data further. That individual, whom I shall call INTREPID, was able to analyse several cycles of data from the National Survey of Family Growth with regard to the promiscuity effect on the risk of divorce.

As far as I'm aware the data that has been obtained is not available anywhere in the published literature. I'm not a statistician and cannot vouch for the veracity of the data but I believe the analysis was done truthfully and without bias. 

I want to publicly thank INTREPID for performing the task. I've had access to the findings for a while and have decided not to post them till now so that no trace could be linked to INTREPID. (The other reason was that I lost access to the account which contained the data and only recently was able to gain access to it) 

INTREPID provided a report on his findings which I reproduce in full below.

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Following up on your post regarding the Heritage Foundation Study, I thought to explore the same
National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) data and see if there’s more to the story. I think there is. Like the Heritage Foundation, I find a negative relationship between non‐marital sex and marital stability, but the relationship is more complex than the Heritage Study leads one to think. In particular, the effect of the number of pre‐marital sex partners on marital stability isn’t linear. Rather, it’s a U‐shaped relationship and invites some further exploration.

For starters, the chart below simply reproduces a finding from the Heritage Foundation study. I use the same axis definitions (as best I can tell) that the Heritage Foundation used (for the 1995 NSFG data). But I now add to it two further waves of the NSFG data (2002 and 2006/2008). The pattern is the same across study waves. An increase in the number of non‐marital lifetime sex partners is related to less marital stability. 



I should point out that my data display for 1995 is slightly different from that reported by the Heritage Foundation. I suspect the difference arises in how “sexually active” is defined. I defined it as ever having had sex. It’s not clear how the Heritage Foundation Study defined it. However, I’ve got some gripes with the above axis and definitions used by the Heritage Foundation. For example, the vertical axis showing “stable” marriages includes some marriages that I wouldn’t consider to be “stable.” Also, the horizontal axis includes some sexual relationships that, in my opinion, are unlikely to be clear  causes of marital instability but might instead be the effect of instability. Specifically…,

• Per the Heritage Foundation’s definition of “stable marriages”, second or third marriages that go on to last five or more years (at the time of the NSFG interview) would be considered “stable”. That is,  the Y‐axis could include some women who have divorced at some point and are poor representatives of “marital stability.”

• It’s likely not a big issue (nor is likely to correlate with non‐marital partner count), but marriages that ended with the death of a husband would fail to count towards the Heritage Foundation’s definition of a “stable marriage”.

• The causal direction isn’t clear. Women who have left a marriage (leaving the pool of those in “stable” marriage) may have increased their non‐marital partner count after leaving the marriage, not before the marriage or during it. A knee‐jerk interpretation of the chart, however, suggests that a high number of non‐marital partners leads to marital instability. Yet it may be that a rise in the number non‐marital lifetime partners follows marital instability. Once divorced, women might sleep around more.

• By looking at the count of non‐marital lifetime sexual partners, we count the sexual episodes of women who perhaps got married as virgin brides, then divorced and subsequently slept around before entering into a “stable” marriage (i.e., one lasting five or more years). From the viewpoint of one desiring to minimize his chances of ever experiencing divorce, looking at the number of non‐marital lifetime partners isn’t perfectly helpful. One ought to instead look at the number of pre‐marital sex partners and the rate of first marriages ending in divorce or separation. This is what Jay Teachman looked at in his paper: first marriages that ended in divorce or separation (marital dissolution)

So, for a more careful look at the effect of extra‐marital partner on marriage success, I create Chart 2 that focuses on divorce outcome (vertical axis) rather than the broader concept of a “marital stability” Specifically, Chart 2 below looks at the effect of non‐marital lifetime partner count (same horizontal axis as above) on the rate of first marriages ending in divorce at the time of the NSFG interview. In other words, and compared with Chart 1, the below excludes those women who may have been  divorced and then re‐entered back into a “stable” marriage by the time of their NSFG survey interview. The pattern looks very similar to that in Chart 1 (albeit reflected since the measure is marital divorce rather than marital stability). 
 

For an even further revelation, I create Chart 3 which improves upon the horizontal axis as well as the vertical one. The vertical axis is the same as in Chart 2 and looks at the rate of first marriages ending in divorce (same outcome measure that Teachman looked at). But the horizontal axis now groups women by their count of pre‐marital sexual partners as opposed to lifetime non‐marital sex partners:

 


This tells a different story from that in Chart 1. In my opinion, Chart 3 is more helpful than the  Heritage Foundation chart as it permits one to come closer to drawing a causal connection between partner counts marital outcomes. The most interesting element in Chart 3 is the U‐shaped relationship between pre‐marital partner count and divorce rates. This surprised me so much that I had to chart the 2002 NSFG data alongside to be  certain that the 2006/08 data wasn’t just a fluke, a sampling artifact. This chart most clearly shows that divorce rates are the lowest for those with zero pre‐marital partners. That part is unambiguous. Virgin brides are the least likely to divorce, all else equal. But why do  divorce rates rise with one or two premarital partners only to reverse and drop after two or more sexual partners? And next, why do divorce rates reverse and climb back up after the pre‐marital partner count goes into the double digits?

This is a very interesting finding that neither the Heritage Foundation Study nor Jay Teachman’s hazard model analysis examine. I’m not even sure they’re aware the relationship exists. I’m anxious to hear reader opinions on the drivers here. My own hypothesis is that a higher partner count (up to 5‐9 or so partners) is correlated with age and maturity in dating experience. Older women, and women with more dating experience, are more likely to have learned which personal qualities will work best for them in a marriage partner. As a result, such women choose more wisely and tend to experience lower divorce rates. Now, it also happens to be the case that older women have had more time and occasion for pre‐marital sex! Specifically, I suspect it’s not the 5‐9 pre‐marital sex partner count per se that drives the relative drop in the divorce rates, but rather it’s the maturity and experience that women have acquired while they’ve dated more men.

It’s too bad the NSFG doesn’t have a variable for something along the lines of “pre‐marital dating experience” or something similar to tease this out. I don’t believe that it does. The NSFG does, however, collect age and education data which I’ll look at in a future analysis. Indeed, my own quick look (not charted here) reveals that the age is positively correlated with partner count, offering some support of a dating maturity hypothesis. But it warrants some additional charts and analysis. …But this idea of partner count as a proxy for dating maturity doesn’t hold forever. On the right‐hand side of Chart 3, I suspect that some women with a high double‐digit pre‐marital partner count begin to make poor marriage candidates due to yet other personality traits. I suspect that some women who have had 21+ marital partners may also have a high need for variety‐seeking across mates such that marriage or settling down with one man might be considered boring. A resulting marriage, if it happens, is less likely to last.

To further understand partner count on divorce outcome, I need to show yet one more data result. The question I have is: does the divorce rate for women change if her pre‐marital sex partner becomes, in fact, her later husband? If one sleeps with one’s (otherwise virgin) female fiancé prior to the wedding, what’s the effect?

The table below contains the answer. I build this from the 2006/08 data (the 2002 data show a similar result). One can see that the divorce rate is nearly 50% for women who had only one pre‐marital partner and if that partner did not develop into her husband. The divorce rate falls to half the above rate (25.6%) if a woman later marries her first and only pre‐marital sex partner. However, both these divorce rates are higher than the divorce rate for virgin brides. Pre‐marital sexual experience with one’s future spouse does not beat out having no pre‐marital sex at all.

 

Distilling all the above, the practical advice for a single woman seeking to lower the risk of her first marriage ending in divorce is to remain a virgin bride. If she sleeps with even one person, her risk of divorce increases, at the very least, by roughly 10% (from 14.9% to a value of 25.6%). …And it could easily go higher. Indeed, her overall divorce risk could jump to 50%—which is higher than any value shown in Chart 3—if she doesn’t marry her first partner (and assuming she doesn’t go on to sleep with other pre‐marital partners). And moving on to sleeping with two or more pre‐marital partners doesn’t ameliorate her likely divorce rate over that of her having zero pre‐marital partners. The best option for a women seeking to lower her divorce risk is to remain a virgin bride (all else equal).

The practical advice from the man’s perspective is only a little less clear. A man never truly knows if  his dating partner is a virgin or not unless he sleeps with her—at which point he would only know that she’s not a virgin. (Sleeping with someone to determine their virginity is a destructive test!) But by definition, a man’s own risk of divorce is connected to his wife’s risk of divorce. Therefore, if he  suspects the woman he’s dating is a virgin, his risk of divorce (just like his wife’s) is lower if he  doesn’t have premarital sex with her and she remains a virgin bride. The question is what to do if he strongly suspects (or if she admits) that he wouldn’t be her first pre‐marital sexual partner. If she’s had just one pre‐marital sexual partner, then Chart 3 suggests that her risk of divorcing him is lower if he becomes her second pre‐marital partner (a roughly 40% divorce risk) than if she has sex with just one pre‐marital partner who isn’t her eventual husband (a 50% divorce risk as found from the Table). One could perhaps extend this logic to the case of a man considering a potential wife who’s had two, three, or even more pre‐marital sexual partners. However, the NSFG doesn’t collect the data needed to  extend the Table above and confirm. Besides, this train of thought related to a male’s pre‐marital sex  strategy sounds like an unfolding “tragedy of the commons” type problem. (The strategy that might be  optimum from a personal standpoint is sub‐optimal once everyone tries to pursue it. ) …In addition, we don’t yet know the effect of the husband’s pre‐marital sexual history on divorce outcomes. That  could have a bearing. These male data on divorce and pre‐marital sex are in the 2002 and 2006/08 NSFG and I’ll be looking at those data in the future.

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Some comments:

The first thing that strikes me about this report is the confirmation that no premarital sexual experience powerfully and significantly lowers the risk of subsequent divorce. Whether or not you agree with the sexual revolution, I don't care, rather, it's that repeated analysis of the data confirms what common wisdom has always asserted; marrying a girl who has not slept around before is the best long term bet from a divorce-avoidance point of view.

Secondly, some of INTREPID's findings seem to contradict. In the last table, INTREPID  indicates that should a woman sleep with one pre-marital partner who later does not become her husband, her risk of divorce increases to near 50%, ye,t the 1 previous partner divorce risk, in chart 3, is listed at somewhere near 35%. If INTREPID can provide an explanation I can be contacted through the usual channels.

Thirdly, the Heritage Study is vindicated. Women who sleep around are far less likely to be in stable relationships.

Fourthly, The U Shaped graph is interesting:
  • I would go with the 2006/8 Figures more than previous ones. I understand that it was only in this cycle that ACASI interviewing was used. Here a computer prompts the questions and the responder enters the data into it. This way there is very limited face to face contact with the questioner and hence, the responder gains a greater degree of anonymity. Previous research has shown that women are prone to give "socially acceptable" responses when interviewed by a real life interviewer as opposed to answering anonymously.
  •  The graph is not controlled for age of marriage.  Girls who marry early will have less sexual experience than girls who marry much later. Age at marriage is a big predictor of divorce and  I imagine that the one to two non-marital partners category is inflated because of this effect.  It would be interesting to see what the age at divorce would be in this  group.
Other reader comments are invited.

Once again, a sincere thanks to INTREPID for all his/her work.

754 comments:

1 – 200 of 754   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

It's so wonderful that someone in the manosphere is doing this research and analysis. TSP is absolutely indispensable!

Men, we all know there are good reasons not to marry. Unfortunately, without marriage there is no civilization. So, if you still want to marry in order to help sustain civilization and attain personal fulfilment or whatever, MAKE SURE YOU MARRY A VIRGIN BRIDE.

You can't be sure if she's a liar or not, so talk to people who know her. Make sure she's not a born again virgin [i.e. undergone hymen repair surgery - which should be banned by the way]. Once you're sure, marry her and love her like there's no tomorrow. Being her first, she'll adore you and you can do no wrong in her eyes.

If she's not a virgin, dump her. Maintain your self-respect - you're too good to be satisfied with sloppy seconds.

Kathy Farrelly said...

"In addition, we don’t yet know the effect of the husband’s pre‐marital sexual history on divorce outcomes. That could have a bearing."

My gosh of course it has a bearing. Men who have slept with many womnen before marriage have trouble bonding. Go and check out Susan Walsh's blog. Men who have had more than twenty women have trouble remaining faithfull.

Anecdotally, one of my husband's mates who slept with a slew of women before he married ended up cheating on his wife and the marriage ended in divorce.

Really do we need these studies to tell us the obvious?.

Men and women who slut it up before marriage will more than likely be unfaithfull in marriage.

"If she's not a virgin, dump her. Maintain your self-respect - you're too good to be satisfied with sloppy seconds."

If you yourself are a virgin I would say good call. On the other hand if you have slept around and expect to marry a virgin then I would say that you are a hypocrite holding your prospective wife to higher values than yourself have aspired to.

Remember too that in God's eyes fornication is a sin for both men and women.

Anonymous said...

Kathy,

We need these studies because in our warped culture of today, the basic facts of human nature have been obscured because they are politically incorrect. The manosphere is merely bringing to light the facts about human nature that well ordered societies of the past knew about. So, yes, in our twisted world of today, we do need studies to tell us the obvious.

As to your assertion that men should not fornicate, just as women should not, talk about stating the obvious!!!!! What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Of course, nowadays, it's easier to find a male virgin than a female one and women are more likely to lie about it - guys lie up and girls lie down. So, contrary to what popular culture says, it's actually harder to find a good woman than a good man.

I'm a male virgin [now 36]. Years ago, I would have been ashamed to admit this [even anonymously], but, now, thanks to the wonders of the manosphere, I'm proud of it and I don't give a damn who knows it. Greater men than me have died virgins [Gregory the Great, Aloysius Gonzaga, John Paul II, to name just three].

God bless.

A Lady said...

What some of the data is showing is the distinction between orderly and disorderly harlotry. All promiscuity isn't created equal and there is some sign of that reflected in the data. Interestingly, whether a woman is orderly or disorderly in her harlotry is not tied that strongly to her partner count. That chick who was with Kennedy was disorderly despite her very low count, for example.

Thursday said...

The best option for a women seeking to lower her divorce risk is to remain a virgin bride (all else equal).

Though very sympathetic overall, in this case the conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. Causation has not been established.

For example, women who would make good marriage partners no matter what may be less likely to have premarital sex.

But no matter what, it seems clear that, for men, the implications are incredibly clear: marry a virgin.

Thursday said...

It would be good to have this same analysis, but controlled for education. Pass along to your guest poster.

Anonymous said...

A Lady,

I have no idea what you're talking about when you refer to "orderly harlotry" and "disorderly harlotry".

If she looks, acts, talks and walks like a whore, she's most likely a whore, no matter how put together she is.

The Social Pathologist said...

Anon@13:23

f she's not a virgin, dump her. Maintain your self-respect - you're too good to be satisfied with sloppy seconds.

I wouldn't push such an exacting line.
In my line of work I get to know of women quite intimately and personally. Lots of them, even though not virgins are good girls. There is a lot of pressure on women to have sex, and I don't mean by men. The whole feminist movement pushes women into "exploring their sexuality" and so women are shamed by the femmo's for not throwing themselves into the orgy.

Right now, I'm thinking of lady who has slept with two men, each of which she wanted to marry...they dumped her. I think she'll make a fine wife.

In this day and age, when there are so many pressures on women to be sexual, I think you've got to cut them some slack. Still be prudent about the matter, there's are world of difference between a woman in her 30's who's had two lovers and at 25 year old with 20+.

@Kathy

I did some rudimentary analysis on the data a while ago and male promiscuity is also correlated with divorce. But there nearly isn't as much data about the matter. Even most of the female data has to be inferred from other studies who's main emphasis was on some other factor.

Frankly, I'm surprised so little research has been done into the matter given the strong correlation but I guess it's something people don't want to know.

Remember too that in God's eyes fornication is a sin for both men and women.

Correct. But what I'm also beginning to see is that it(fornication) is one of the fundamental forces of social atomisation.

@Anon @3:23

I would have been ashamed to admit this [even anonymously], but, now, thanks to the wonders of the manosphere, I'm proud of it and I don't give a damn who knows it.

One the very interesting findings in the 2006/8 cycle of NSFG is that there more virgins now than in the previous 2002 cycle. I personally don't think there has been any change in behaviour, rather, there method of collecting personal data has changed. The ASCI method of data collection assure more anonymity.

Some of the "one or two pre marital partner" groups in the past may have actually been virgins who were too ashamed that they hadn't slept with anyone so inflated their numbers up. Whilst some of the three or four number may have deflated their numbers down in the presence of a real life interviewer.

@A Lady

I think you're getting at something I want to deal with in the next post. One of things the studies have impressed upon me is just how much the risk of divorce is increased by sleeping with one partner only. I never thought it would be so significant.

@Thursday

For example, women who would make good marriage partners no matter what may be less likely to have premarital sex.

It's absolutely true that a mechanism hasn't been established, yet the correlation is very strong.

One of the reasons I held off putting up the study for so long is because I was hoping for some further data in order to give a more definite post. INTREPID is rather busy so I happy with the crumbs they have given, should INTREPID provide me with more data I will put it up.

Still, I mulled about the economic and educational aspects of it for quite a while and I feel that they are only moderately relevant. ( Yeah, I know you'll disagree.)

Johnycomelately said...

Graph 3 seems to fit perfectly with Rollo's assertion that women have a binary mode of needs based upon age, ie that younger women seek alpha procurement while as they age they seek security.

The high divorce rate for 2 partners seems to be driven by age and need for alpha procurement while the drop after 2 partners might indicate a higher partner count attributable to age and the consequent need for security.

Jason said...

Concerning the argument a few have mentioned that you should try to/or only marry virgins, I’m certainly sympathetic, but it really doesn’t help those older than twenty-something who are unlikely to find a virginal partner (or even a partner who has a very low notch-count). Unless such individuals – of whom there are many – chose to be players or chaste (the latter I certainly respect and believe is good, although I think it is unrealistic for most), they will have to figure out what they can do to increase their odds of avoiding divorce (yes, I know, the dangers of divorce are all too real, but I think the drawbacks to remaining alone or being players are even worse than divorce for many people). Some of these ways to avoid divorce are:
1. If religious, be observant, and have a partner who is observant (e.g. if Catholic, both go to weekly Mass, go to the sacrament of reconciliation monthly, etc); also both need to take the demands and strictures of their religion seriously.
2. Be educated, to allude to Thursday’s point.
3. During courtship, subtly conduct a marriage suitability test on the partner (for a good test, see Dalrock’s blog) – if the partner doesn’t pass with fairly flying colors, move on.
4. If a man, have game during courtship and marriage.
5. If a woman, be independent (i.e. not a doormat) but also submissive during courtship and marriage (admittedly a touch balance, harder than many manosphere people want to admit or even often acknowledge).
To be sure, such steps as these won’t remove the risk of divorce but they will reduce it, thus making that (again admittedly rather dangerous) leap of faith more worth taking as far as partners with a notch-count are concerned. It seems to me that anybody who wants to be constructive about the marriage problem should regularly espouse these steps.

Kathy Farrelly said...

Anon @3.23 am.


A good man like you deserves a good woman.

I will keep you in my prayers. I am sure that God will reward your faithfulness. I sincerely believe that

God Bless you too! :D

Intrepid said...

Nice to see the interest in these data.

To Anonymouse and Kathy: "In addition, we don’t yet know the effect of the husband’s pre‐marital sexual history on divorce outcomes. That could have a bearing."

Absolutely. As mentioned in the original post, there are male data available in some of the waves. Seeing the interest here makes me want to look into it. As to whether we really "need these studies to tell us the obvious", what's interesting is when they DON'T tell us the obvious (such as U-shape issue in the OP). I could easily imagine other factors, different conditional relationships, etc. in the male vs. female data.

Intrepid said...

Hi Thursday. "It would be good to have this same analysis, but controlled for education"

...And for age, and for religiosity, etc. There are a whole slew of interesting variables in these data.

Also interesting would be to see how these variables change in their effects over time. There are a number of waves of this survey going back into the early 1970's. I read some blogger somewhere claim these earlier data prove that women are no more promiscuous today than they were 40 years ago. I'm highly suspicious of such a claim. ...But the answers ought to be here in the data.

GK Chesterton said...

Just a quick note, since it ruins the readability of the data, the article talks about only being able to test for a virgin once and it being a destructive test. Yes, it's a destructive test. No, you do not know empirically after the "experiment". You know with greater certitude since things like exercise could "destroy the test". That being said its a throw away comment that makes us look bad and should probably be removed.

To SP, I actually would argue that the sin is not symmetrical. But that's a different topic (and no I'm not defending myself here I married my sexual partner). I'd also argue that pressure or no a man has every right to pursue a virgin bride. It will make for a greater chance for him and his children and raise the value of said brides which will hopefully swing the pendulum back a bit.

The Social Pathologist said...

@Intrepid

Thanks for all the work once again. I think everyone here is interested in the data.(even people who don't comment) and if you get the chance more will be appreciated.

@GKC

The report is INTREPID's and not mine. I left it as given.

@Jason

I think there are several aspects to the data that need to be considered. Firstly, the idea that promiscuity doesn't matter for long term relationship stability is thoroughly debunked. Sleeping around matters from an objectively empirical point of view.

Virginity is but one way to avoid divorce (but gee isn't it a powerful protectant against it. I never thought that the effect would be so great.) I think that its value needs to be emphasied at least in the Christian corner of the manosphere.

But virginity is but one metric you need to look at. For example some virginity may be involuntary and therefore is not a virtue. Some virginity may arise from asexuality, which is also a fail in my book. Then there are a whole host of other factors that you need to consider. Work ethic, financial sense etc.

What you want is a lusty girl that can control herself. Now that's the prize.

Tom said...

I think there's a massive reversal of causation and correlation here.

To me, a virgin bride is almost certainly an expression of religiosity. I expect the difference in divorce rates is driven by Muslim and Catholic beliefs on the part of *both* participants. # of partners and divorce rate is a product of religiosity, not cause-effect.

I'm also not certain why anyone would expect a bride who has decided to remain a virgin until marriage would expect anything less from her partner. After all, why would she marry someone incapable of maintaining the beliefs of their church.

Personality and circumstance drive one's "count". The idea of using your partner's count rather than your personal evaluation of your prospective partner's personality seems crazy. If you don't know who you're marrying, then for goodness sake, don't get married!

I understand the numbers are fascinating in a statistical sense, but if you're trusting a dubious metric over your own judgement in such an important personal decision, you've probably upped the chance of divorce significantly right there...

Intrepid said...

@Tom... "if you're trusting a dubious metric over your own judgement in such an important personal decision, you've probably upped the chance of divorce significantly right there."

My interpretation of the data wasn't meant to recommend one turn-off personal evaluation when selecting a marriage partner. Rather, the data simply suggest one include low partner count as part of that evaluation. Put differently: I'd be surprised if a high partner count + positive judgement had a lower divorce risk than low partner count + positive judgement. All else equal, low partner count is associated with lower divorce risk.

As to whether there's a spurious correlation, i.e., whether other factors (e.g., high religiosity) are driving BOTH a low partner count AND a lower risk of divorce, that could be. ...But again, and at the very least, the data suggest low partner count is something to pay attention to. Whether it's the cause itself or merely a revealing indicator of yet another cause, that makes it worth paying attention to (at least until one finds a more easily observed primal cause and indicator).

Sandor said...

Tom said:
"To me, a virgin bride is almost certainly an expression of religiosity." I think you would provoke some thought if you posed this as a question. Could it also be tribal or cultural? If so, could it be derived from something other than the male instinct to maximize the spread of his genes? I keep coming back to Tacitus' Germania. In it, you see Germanic tribes from 2000 years ago that appear to respect their women, but judge them harshly when it comes to adultery or lack of chastity.

This comment is also interesting: "The idea of using your partner's count rather than your personal evaluation of your prospective partner's personality seems crazy." No one is saying either / or. Shouldn't you weigh everything in one of the most important decisions you'll ever make?

The Social Pathologist said...

@Johnycomelately

I think that's an eminently plausible explanation.

I run with the theory that while women give the appearance of early maturity, they in fact tend to cognitively mature much later than men. Young women, in particular, are prone to act based on the "tingles" rather than objective self interest.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons of the high early marriage divorce rate.

Tom said...

I have to say that I believe the most common cause of divorce has to do with the raising of young children.

In an age where, for the majority, life has become infinitely easier, raising infants and toddlers is the equivalent of at least 3 full time jobs. It's 24 hours, with rare breaks.

Given that the burden for child-care falls strongly upon women (who are often at home for that time), it's at that time that they find out whether their partner is truly responsible or not.

There are a lot of males who are presumably responsible, working full time, and keeping the family financially afloat, who are surprised to learn that that's only 1/2 of their true responsibilities. They learn that they have a responsibility to come home from an exhausting day at work, and be ready to share the child-care duties, help do housework, etc.

Some pretend that the responsibility doesn't exist and they've done their part by simply earning a decent living. Not surprisingly, many end up divorced.

That's why I'm in favor of at least a few weeks mandatory paternity leave. It's the one chance for fathers to find out that going to work each day is by far easier than raising a toddler well. (Except for the few men that find child-minding so difficult, they pretend there's magic pixie dust that makes the job easy for women!)

Very young marriages may not look to first order responsibility (can he hold a job), but even mature women may not realize the capability of, (or even the necessity of) a husband who is capable of holding up all of his end of the marital responsibilities in those challenging first few years of their children's life.

(And the reverse of this all holds true for house-husbands - it's just a lot rarer.)

Thursday said...

I run with the theory that while women give the appearance of early maturity, they in fact tend to cognitively mature much later than men. Young women, in particular, are prone to act based on the "tingles" rather than objective self interest.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons of the high early marriage divorce rate.


But according to Mark Regnerus, the divorce rate basically drops off a cliff once women reach the age of 20 (and then tapers off even further as she gets older), while for men it only really goes down after age 25 or so. Men should get married in their mid to late 20s to women in their early 20s.

There may be ways in which women don't fully mature until later, but that is true of men as well.

Thursday said...

drops off a cliff

Too strong language, but I think you get the point.

The Social Pathologist said...

@Thursday

There may be ways in which women don't fully mature until later, but that is true of men as well.

True, men are quite capable of immaturity as well. But the immaturity of men, in my experience, is different to that of women.

Men tend to be irresponsible about their duties while responsible about their relationships. Women, on the other hand, tend to be irresponsible in their relationships whilst responsible in their duties.

Tom alludes to this point in his comments about postpartum marital stress. A lot of men carry on after the birth of a child as if it is an event of no significance, clueless to the implications of it or its duties. Lot's of women will complain to me saying, "doesn't he see the clothes on the floor", or "that the baby needs to be changed", or " the kids can't just eat junk food" etc. Outside their jobs, lots of men have a real problem with acting responsibly.

On the other hand, it's rare, if ever, to see a high status man with a "trollop". The professional man with some attractive trailer trash is rare.

I've not heard of Regnerus before, but I've just ordered his book. One of his online articles had a quote which I felt was pertinent:

Third, the age at which a person marries never actually causes a divorce. Rather, a young age at marriage can be an indicator of an underlying immaturity and impatience with marital challenges -- the kind that many of us eventually figure out how to avoid or to solve without parting.

Women tend to marry badly but men tend to stuff up their marriages.

GK Chesterton said...

@Tom,

I appreciate your claim that religiosity is likely the driving force behind divorce. But even if that is true, then partner count acts as a direct measure of religiosity. It is the thing that "personal judgement" can actually judge. Yes, there are abstract factors, but if they aren't pinned to actual data then you have a problem.

I'd trust a man who's judgement started with, "she hasn't slept around," more than one who says, "I like her smile." One radiates rationality the other is immature.

Vladimir said...

There seems to be a serious problem either with Intrepid's data or with Teachman's study.

According to Teachman, "The most salient finding... is that women whose intimate premarital relationships are limited to their husbands — either premarital sex alone or premarital cohabitation — do not experience an increased risk of divorce." This is a crucial finding, since it falsifies the hypothesis that increased divorce risk of women with multiple partners is due to a selection bias towards women with more liberal values. (Who would thus only be more inclined to leave equally bad marriages, not less likely to form good marriages.)

According to Intrepid, however, "Pre‐marital sexual experience with one’s future spouse does not beat out having no pre‐marital sex at all." This would destroy the traditionalist argument supported by Teachman's paper, since it would support the above outlined selection effect hypothesis.

In any case, this is a serious contradiction that calls for explanation if we are to derive any conclusions from all these data.

Vladimir said...

By the way, for readers who are unfamiliar with the old discussion of Teachman's paper to which I'm referring, the link is here:

http://socialpathology.blogspot.ca/2010/09/sexual-partner-divorce-risk.html

Walenty Lisek said...

"For example, women who would make good marriage partners no matter what may be less likely to have premarital sex.

It's absolutely true that a mechanism hasn't been established, yet the correlation is very strong."

Reading both this and the "data on infidelity post" the firs thing I thought was that some personality trait is actually driving both promiscuity and divorce. One of the Big 5 such as low agreeableness, or high openness or high neuroticism or maybe some combination there of are actually what are driving both behaviors.

Basically the same thing that makes a woman slut it up also makes her a jerk or emotionally unstable and produces the effect of both promiscuity and the inability to stay in a relationship.

Anonymous said...

Kathy Farrelly @ 10:18 a.m.:

Thank you for your kind words.

You should know, however, that I'll be just fine if I never marry. The manosphere has actually helped strengthen my faith and I now understand and agree with Saint Paul when he wrote that "it is good not to touch a woman".

Walenty @ 4:48 p.m.:

Walenty, I'm not sure that there is any hard evidence for what you suggest. Anecdotally, I've known women who were highly emotionally unstable and who nonetheless waited for sex until marriage. I also know of relatively demure, stable women who have slutted it up and made bad relationship choices. As someone from around 40years ago who was quoted in an F. Roger Devlin article said: "Nice girls are ruining themselves" [emphasis on "nice"].

I have to say that I think all the talk of cause and effect and data correlation in these comments is beside the point. Regardless of the reason, pre-marital abstinence is a strong positive indicator of marital fidelity. This makes sense intuitively. The wedding ceremony has no magical power to turn a promiscuous person into a faithful spouse.

Intrepid said...

Vladimir, your comment is a good one, thanks. It indeed looks like an apparent contradiction. But it might also have a reasonable explanation. The table above that SocPath shows uses the most recent wave of the HSFG survey from 2006/08. Teachman (whose study was published in 2003) used the 1995 survey wave. So, it's possible that the findings just happen to be different in the two survey waves. Different samples, different time periods, different survey structures (even a different order to the survey questions!) can generate different results.

Perhaps too we've each used different filters or different variables/definitions. (There are hundreds of variables in these data sets). I'd need to re-read Teachman, go into the 1995 data, and re-run more data to be sure.

But FWIW, the difference I found here for 2006/08 between an 85% and 74% rate of "still married" (see the original table above) is highly statistically significant (t-value of -14, p<.0001).

FYI, I also have the 2002 wave of the HSFG survey and ran the very same table. I find a result similar to the 2006/08 data. Even if one's sole pre-marital partner later becomes one's husband, there's a higher divorce risk associated than if one has zero pre-marital sexual partners.

Intrepid said...

@Vladimir...

One more thing: It's also possible that after one controls for other factors, such as Teachman does through a proportional hazard model (think of it as a fancy regression model), that my own findings are reversed. For example, assume that older women (at time of first marriage) suffer lower risk of later divorce--an entirely plausible hypothesis. If such women are also somehow less likely (than younger women) to sleep with their future husbands before marriage, then that could explain our differences. That is, once one controls for age at first marriage, my findings could be reversed. My simple table here doesn't control for any other demographic factors. It just looks at straightforward averages.

...But there'd have to be an awful lot of such older women in the sample (or age at first marriage would need to be way more significant than partner count) to overcome the 11-point difference found in the 2006/08 data!

Dale said...

The reduction in divorce risk with two partners instead of one non-maritial partner may be due to the husband not being a pre-marital partner due to his being less attractive then the lover. (Not a good basis for a marriage.)

Durandel said...

We need more data. It is a shame that more has not been done.

SP, in your experience, do you find idolatry is more an indicator than number (N)? I agree, N does count (pun!) but there are other factors. I'll explain what I've seen on the ground:

I work in Young Adults Ministry for a Catholic Church and also for my Diocese. We have a good number of active young adults in the ministry. If I was to judge marriageability of the young adults I meet and minster to (avg age in the Diocese for the group is 26/27, range is 22-39)I'd rate some of the reverts and converts over some of the virgin faithful. Not all, but some. I say this because while the reverts/converts usually have a N and some have a high N, I feel more secure on the ones who have mentally and in practice placed God as first in their lives. They are seeking to properly order their priorities and to develop Godly habits and ways of seeing things. Some of the virgins and low N, while claiming the same, are clearly placing family/marriage/spousal love as number one over God. Good things setup as idols. This becomes obvious as you talk and minster to them, as what they focus on, say about relationships, and pray about tends to reflect their true worship. I've never seen anything good come from this.

Without data on idolatry, it's difficult to generate trends or prababilities. I'm just curious if the proper ordering of one's life (God/Jesus first) can trump divorce due to N and dampen impulsive behavioral tendencies of the past.

The Social Pathologist said...

Durandel

SP, in your experience, do you find idolatry is more an indicator than number (N)?

I cant really give a simple answer to the question.

If I had to pick one feature that I think would be a high predictor of marital failure it would be a personality with a strong sense of self and self-justification. Unfortunately our culture feeds this sense and justifies it. Idolatry of any kind is toxic. I think those individuals who are more focused on the joys of marriage instead of the biblical command to maintain it are quite likely to stray as well. Idolatry is not good.

Still, I think a high number count does affect the bonding process, but a refocusing of the consciousness from the self to God can overcome this to a significant degree.

I'm just curious if the proper ordering of one's life (God/Jesus first) can trump divorce due to N and dampen impulsive behavioral tendencies of the past.

St Augustine loved his sex yet after his conversion he stayed on the straight and narrow. So yes, it is possible.

Durandel said...

"I think a high number count does affect the bonding process, but a refocusing of the consciousness from the self to God can overcome this to a significant degree." - SP

Yes, there is even a study or two that seems to suggest as much on the bonding process issue. I experienced it myself. I also agree that society seems directed towards promoting narcissism and apathy, which is why we see justifications for the Hobbesian mate market rather than a real push to change it.

Speaking about my own experience (narcissistic?), my sexual past certainly causes issues for me. I do my best to redirect and develop new habits, especially with women, but it is certainly better never to have walked that path than it is to walk it and then find the narrow one. While I don't fornicate now, and repented, thoughts and concupiscence from retained memories can be a royal pain. St. Augustine is my personal saint, because of the similarities in our lives, so he helps as an example. I know I can win this too but I counsel the young to avoid it.

The Social Pathologist said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Social Pathologist said...

@Durandel

I know I can win this too but I counsel the young to avoid it.

I agree.

While I don't fornicate now, and repented, thoughts and concupiscence from retained memories can be a royal pain.

That is where I think the problem lays. The pleasantness of the memory is always a source of potential temptation. The Gamers have a similar concept, "Five minutes of alpha".

As I get older, I am of the opinion that men and women who have not ridden the carousel are probably the lucky ones.

Still, men like yourself and Augustine are important. In that pleasures of the flesh, whilst good, do not satisfy ultimate desire.

Steve N said...

Have to say that U-shaped chart 3 is absolutely amazing. Could very well be an age artifact, but it's a very strong spike. My guess is that 2 priors represents some sort of negative optimum between high choosiness and low morals. The girls that had "only" two must've slept with only very high ranking males... and now the husbands that they could actually get just don't measure up. Whereas, the girls who had 5-9 really just aren't that choosy.

PC said...

Anyone who forms an opinion on the above information which is unreferenced, therefore prohibiting scrutiny of details of the studies sample size, method etc, should aim for a marriage short enough to prevent reproduction !
You will be doing our future societies a favour :)

african woman said...

I really admire your great effort about doing this incredible research and some sort of analysis!

You want for me it seems to be so unfair on our side because a woman needs to be virgin before marriage as a sign of purity but how about men?

How do we know that they are still a virgin? that they haven't tried pre-marital sex before marriage? Isn't it really unfair to the part of women?

Anonymous said...

My wife was a virgin at marriage.

But if she answered a survey that she had '0' partners after marriage-- honestly-- I would have been a very unhappy husband.

Why marry a virgin if you don't get to have sex with her?

In other words, the table needs to be labeled differently.

Anonymous said...

I'm trying to remember what I learned in graduate school. But I seem to recall that if you have enough data points, it's quite likely that you can get a U-shaped relationship for lots of things. It's more a matter of the test imposing a U-shape on the data, and since there are so many points, it sticks. This is a comment about the heritage study.

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