Whilst I did not think socioeconomic factors would alter things much, I could not prove it. Fortunately the source of this information has been found, (Thanks Leah!) and what's below is taken from it.
As you can see, socioeconomic factors don't play any major role in the number count. Furthermore, intelligence--measured imperfectly by its proxy education--seems to have a small effect. Highly educated and affluent white girls seem to be doing their fair share of the heavy lifting. Must be those Law/arts majors.
The paper from which this data is from can be found here. There is literally loads and loads of information in it.
The 2002 data is here and pretty much confirms the 1995 findings. Table 11, page 29 for those interested.
With regard to the 1995 data, there is a flaw in the Heritage Foundation's methodology. Apparently Married= Married+ remarried. Approximately 9.3% of the Married group were remarriages. I suppose that's why the Heritage Foundation labeled the graph, Stable Marriages instead of First Marriages. Anyway, what this does is artificially elevates that stable marriage rate of the 2 or more partner group, since about 15% of the marriages are remarriages.
It also dilutes the 1 partner group falsely by about 3% making the probability of stable marriage lower than what it is in reality.
I've got to admit that whilst I thought promiscuous women were less safe bets, I never imagined that the effect would kick in after so few partners.
It's actually spurred me to do a bit of a non systemic literature search and the data which I have found by other independent researchers seems to point in the same direction. I'll hopefully put up a post in the next few weeks when time avails.
This has all been rather profoundly depressing. Based upon the data, the current "hook up" culture is likely to produce a social disaster never before seen in the West. We are facing a social apocalypse. Society is going to implode.
22 comments:
And the stats on men?
interesting to see Roissy's theories on the collapse of marriage/America backed up by actual numerical/empirical data
@Anon.
The following is derived from the 2005 report.
The percentage was determined by the formula:
%= married/married+formerly married.
(note that married figure includes remarriage)
Partners: %not divorced.
1 95%
2 70%
3-6 57%
7-14 48%
15+ 32%
The figures are based on the 2005 CDC report listed above. Given that it sampled 60,000+ men it's probably pretty spot on.
What's interesting here is that promiscuity does not seem to impair male bonding at the same rate as it does in women. A man has to sleep with over seven women before he becomes a statistically bad catch.
Perhaps the "double standard" has a biological basis. Reasonably sexually experienced men are still capable of bonding and are hence not that repulsive to the average woman, whereas the female promiscuity seems to generate stronger negative feelings. Just speculating.
@**** *****
You know, one of the really interesting things is that there really isn't much academic study on the matter. Given that divorce is associated with a host of negative outcomes you'd wonder why such a clear correlate has not been investigated more. All of this is really depressing.
Thanks for doing this! That "study" was just tooooo much for me to even attempt to dissect.
Sorry, the table is useless for proving that education/intelligence/SES isn't the main causal factor behind failure to achieve stable relationships, namely because it doesn't include rate of stable relationships by education level.
I'm with you in spirit, but this won't do.
Based upon the data, the current "hook up" culture is likely to produce a social disaster never before seen in the West.
I think you're confusing correlation with causation. Far more likely is that the trait that causes women to have more sexual partners also makes them less stable in marriage.
However, in a very restrictive culture that trait might mean 2-3 partners, while in a hookup culture, it might mean 10-20.
It's very likely that the act itself has no bearing on the stability of the marriage.
I think you're confusing correlation with causation. Far more likely is that the trait that causes women to have more sexual partners also makes them less stable in marriage.
That's quite possible. But what that means pragmatically is that a woman with multiple sexual partners is statistically bad marriage material.
There are two issues that need to be addressed here.
1)Practical. Is a woman with multiple sexual partners a higher risk proposition? It would appear so from the data.
2)Scientific. Why? What is the mechanism? Lots of studies have demonstrated that promiscuous people tend to hold more "liberal" attitudes to such matters and therefore personality factors--expressed through sexual behaviours--are more a determinant of marital failure.
People who cohabit are known to have different values than those who do not. Teachman's study was valuable by showing the variance in divorce risk amongst people who co-habit by the number of sexual partners they had. ( In effect he controlled for more "liberal" attitudes)
Personally, I feel that there are multiple factors at play but I'm really getting the impression from the studies that I've read that there is some form of bonding incapability with the promiscuous, some of which has it roots in sexual activity per se, particularly during adolescence.
Thanks for this great data source! I look forward to poring over it....
Education level and socioeconomic class certainly can explain a lot of what goes on in the Heritage Foundation graph you post here.
Upper class and well-educated women tend to delay marriage--if only until completion of their educations--making it much less likely that they will fit the definition of "stable marriage" here.
If your thesis is actually that successful marriage requires sexual bonding between partners, and promiscuous women bond with their husbands incompletely, you need a very different kind of research to support it. Neither of the studies you cite here come anywhere close to getting you there.
@ R Stanton Scott
Education level and socioeconomic class certainly can explain a lot of what goes on in the Heritage Foundation graph you post here.
How?
Education level and socioeconomic class certainly can explain a lot of what goes on in the Heritage Foundation graph you post here. Upper class and well-educated women tend to delay marriage--if only until completion of their educations--making it much less likely that they will fit the definition of "stable marriage" here. If your thesis is actually that successful marriage requires sexual bonding between partners, and promiscuous women bond with their husbands incompletely, you need a very different kind of research to support it. Neither of the studies you cite here come anywhere close to getting you there.
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@ R Stanton Scott Education level and socioeconomic class certainly can explain a lot of what goes on in the Heritage Foundation graph you post here. How?
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>Society is about to explode
As predicted by J.D. Unwin and Hosea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Unwin
Unwins Sex and Culture nailed this issue many decades before these current papers and Sorokin extended his work with his book "The American Sex Revolution" written in the 1950s.
A copy of Sex and Culture.
https://archive.org/details/b20442580
The trend is irreversible, barring mass conversion, among the majority but smaller groups will continue normal family formation and possibly survive the tide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitirim_Sorokin
Really rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and entertaining.
This is a very interesting post.
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