Saturday, September 18, 2010

2002 Male and Female Statistical Data.

I've managed to crunch the numbers from both Male and Female National Survey of Family Growth. As a treat for sdaedalus, I've included the male data.

Method.

First My approach to analysis was Catholic, in that you're only allowed to get married once. Remarriages count as a fail. However the data from NSFG 2002 included remarriages amongst the currently married.

Amongst males, 21% of the currently married were second or later marriages.
Amongst females, 23% of the currently married were second or later marriages.


What I basically attempted to do was calculate the following:

%Married=%married/(%married+%divorced+%remarried) for each sexual partner cohort.

1) The first thing to work out was how many remarriages there were.
2) Then I proportionately distributed the remarriages amongst the the greater-than-two-sexual-partner cohorts.
3) Then I subtracted the remarriages from the current marriages in these cohorts to give me a estimate of married once in each group.
4) Then I added the remarriages to the divorce group and performed the above calculation.

Result.

Note, this graph does not measure how long the the subjects had been married, simply their marriage status by partner count.

It's interesting to note that male promiscuity does not seem to affect marital stability as much as female.

26 comments:

  1. Seems like it would be useful to also run this while limiting the sample to people who at the time of the survey were in a particular age band, say 40-45, by which time marital stability evidence would have had some time to accumulate. Lack of caffeine keeps me from being able to concisely express the statistical reasoning behind this, but it feels right..

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous7:13 am

    Social Pathologist:

    Well, bravo, Sir.

    Well done! I'm STILL not convinced that there aren't other conflating factors for all this and that maybe of the factors we DO know of age of first sex and/or religion might be the two that have the most affect on the stability of marriages.

    What you HAVE convinced me of is two things:
    A. For whatever reason, partner counts higher than about 2 for women are a very bad bet if you wish to marry them, esp. if they had their first sex really young

    And

    B. Men's promiscuity while still something to consider in terms of "marriage material" does not matter as much as womens.

    I've been following this alot over the past few weeks.

    Clarence

    ReplyDelete
  3. There's very likely a cheating aspect in here too though.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The big gap seems to come between those who more or less follow traditional morals (thus only having sex with the person they marry or are close to marrying) and all the rest.

    But among the latter it is interesting to note that the marital stability rate of men with 20+ partners is the same as for women with 3 partners.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @David.

    I think the best way to do this realistically and efficiently would be to divide people into marriage then divorced cohorts, lets say 1,3,5,7........20+ years and see how the groups vary by sexual partner count. If the longer lasting marriage cohorts have less sexual partners as a group, I think we would be onto something.

    @Clarence
    Thanks for hanging around, more coming.

    @Athol
    Post coming up on that too.

    @Thursday.
    It's really beginning to look if traditional morality wasn't just some arbitrary imposition, there actually might be some rationality behind it.

    But among the latter it is interesting to note that the marital stability rate of men with 20+ partners is the same as for women with 3 partners.

    Yep, it does appear that sleeping around does affect women more than men. I also noted that the risk of 10-20 man is the same as the risk of the one extra man woman. Still, I thought I wouldn't comment on it since I thought I was beginning to sound a bit misogynistic.

    ReplyDelete
  7. A few points:
    (1) I suspect that many (especially younger people) who get divorced accumulate a few more sexual partners. This means that there could be a large number of people who *had* one partner at marriage, divorced, and then had a few more.

    Essentially it means that very few divorces (unless they're quite recent) will show up under 1 partner.

    (2) If you find the person you want to marry, who are you going to believe, your heart or probability?

    "Sorry dear, I know we're made for each other, but you've had three partners over the last 10 years, so I think we're done."

    ReplyDelete
  8. SP...the analysis by length-of-marriage cohorts--people who have been married longer will on the average be *older*, so part of what would be getting measured would probably be attitudes toward sex/marriage/divorce that were prevalent during their formative years...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous1:12 am

    Over at Hidden Leaves, I was thinking out loud about nonintercourse hookups, ie orgasmic make-out sessions without penetration, and their psychological impact on women, which I think is probably usually much less than actual intercourse//even if the hookup is great and the intercourse is unsatisfying! My impression is that up thru the 1970s and early 1980s, it was pretty common for girls to be dating multiple guys, dating including heavy make-out, and this wasn't necessarily considered slutty//but as couples have started going from making out to sex much quicker, this has led to the (usually temporary) exclusivity starting sooner.

    Wondering if you've seen any data on numbers of hookup partners and how these compare with number of sex partners.

    -Just Thinking

    ReplyDelete
  10. It’s great you’re doing this work Social Pathologist. If I could throw in some thoughts for possible further data mining / numbers crunching on your part?

    Including people who have remarried and not caring how long the current marriage has lasted really muddies the water for guys wanting to know the divorce risk by partner count.

    What guys want to know is what are the risks of divorce in a high investment marriage - ones that produce kids or that last a long time and hence he’ll have to give half his long term accumulated wealth with her and possibly be on the hook for long lasting alimony (sometimes lifetime) in many states.

    I join David in wanting to pick an older age band as coming closer to measuring the risk of whether the marriage would ever dissolve. Using 40-45 yo gen xers who probably mostly got married in the 90s and have a roughly 15-20 year marriage stikes a good balance between i) picking an age cohort too far removed when they married from the conditions under which men might contemplate marriage now; and 2) there having been in the majority of marriages enough time to see if they will really last.

    So I’d want to ask if that cohort had even gotten divorced in a marriage which either 1) produced children or 2) lasted 2 years or longer. There’s a good number of marriages which dissolve in the first two years (particularly among the less educated) but this doesn’t usually produce the damage to ex husbands and kids that longer ones do if no kids are involved.

    ReplyDelete
  11. *not too removed when they married.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thursday—

    But among the latter it is interesting to note that the marital stability rate of men with 20+ partners is the same as for women with 3 partners.

    It could mostly be indicating that men with a high partner count are more interested in remarrying and able to do so than women with one are. For one thing women with a high count are probably more often older at the time of the survey than women with a low count. We know that men do remarry significantly more often than women do, particular as age of the woman goes up.

    ReplyDelete
  13. You could also interpret the fact that men's partner count doesn't make as much of a difference to marriage stability as perhaps men are still increasing their partner count even though they're in a stable marriage, the cads!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous8:31 pm

    Its not just the personal happiness of a lifelong marital relationship that matters.

    Large numbers of divorces in a society have huge affect on the stability of the society, future educational and career prospects of children, and financial and social burdens imposed on society. Fewer divorces also lead to less earnings for lawyers, and that cant be such a bad thing.

    ReplyDelete
  15. How did I miss this? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous1:14 pm

    Hi, Interesting article but I have a minor correction- remarriage in the Catholic Church does not count as a "fail". Other than death of a partner, there are very legitimate reasons for an annulment (Essentially a Catholic approved divorce) which can include cheating, domestic violence (obviously) not being truthful about very important issues before the marriage took place, and many more.

    ReplyDelete
  17. This article is very interesting and I basically believe it, but I expect that there is some problem with either the data you used or the calculations.

    Because at every number, women divorce more than men. And it simply cannot be true in heterosexual marriages that one gender divorce more.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Rowina8:38 pm

    Hi...I have found the dataset from the National Survey for Family growth and want to do my own analysis on it. How did you read the data files? I am on a mac and have R statistical analysis. Do you have the .csv file of the data? My email is rowina_is AT hotmail.com

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  19. thanks for the article information is very useful for me

    ReplyDelete

  20. artikel yang saya baca ini sangan membantu buat saya juga menambah masukan.
    saya ingin sedikit berbagi pengalaman soal jual obat bius yang sangat populer di tahun ini karena banyak sekali keluhan dari konsumen masalah kurang harmonis dalam hubungan pasutri. bagi anda yang mengalami hal tersebut janganlah berkecil hati karena kami akan mengatasinya dengan obat bius asli germany yang mempu membuat wanita pingsan sekaligus merangsang akan naik gairah seksual yang dahsyat.

    banyak ada yang salah menilai obat bius itu sama khasiatnya dengan obat tidur akan tetapi sangatlah berbeda fungsinya sudah jelas untuk mengatasi insomnia atau susah tidur karena memang penyakit tersebut sangatlah tidak enak bahkan bisa menyebabkan mata menjadi buram juga berkurangnya nafsu makan.

    tetapi bagi anda yang mengalami ganguan susah tidur tidak usah kawatir sebab kami jual obat tidur yang sudah puluhan tahun menjadi kepercayaan bagi konsumen dengan layanan ramah juga sopan karena kepuasan konsumen adalah pilihan utama. obat tidur cair salah satunya yang mempunyai kandungan khusus mampu membuat orang cepat tertidur hingga lelap sekaligus bisa menyembuhkan penyakit insomnia.

    ReplyDelete


  21. Streaming is great but sometimes you want to watch that movie during the camping trip in the middle of nowhere or on the plane when the internet is much slower than at home. The solution is to download the movie onto your device so you can watch it (aka "stream it locally") later on, when the internet isn't so great.

    83 movie download
    atrangi re unique love story
    tadap movie
    sooryavanshi movie
    shiddat movie

    It's easy to search for "free movies" to download but pretty much everything you find will be illegal. Fortunately, there are plenty of completely legal free movie download sources out there. Some of them offer movies in the public domain but most are actually not-so-well-known, free features of the streaming plans you may already subscribe to!

    We scoured the internet and found all the best free movie download sources, filtered through them to remove any of the shady ones (you're welcome, trust us), and wrote about them below. Enjoy!

    ReplyDelete
  22. coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co coba99.co

    ReplyDelete
  23. a very beatiful

    ReplyDelete